Why Iran’s Reformists are down, but not out

As Iranians head to the polls on July 5 to elect the country’s next president, in my latest analysis for Amwaj.media, I take a closer look at the campaign strategies, rhetoric, and stated plans of the Reformists to explain why the movement is struggling to satisfy its base—the core of which has historically been made up of the white-collar middle class, college students, urban workers, and women who seek greater representation and social freedoms.

Iran held snap presidential elections on June 28, following the May 19 death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. After the vote, two leading contenders emerged—Reformist Masoud Pezeshkian and hardliner Saeed Jalili. Neither secured the required majority of votes to declare an outright victory. So, constituents will head to the polls again on July 5 to decide between the two candidates and their widely differing approaches toward social justice, the economy, and foreign policy.

As demonstrated by the record-low turnout of 40% in the first round of voting, the two political camps—particularly the Reformists—did not manage to reignite zeal for change through the ballot box, continuing a downward trend seen in the 2021 presidential and Mar. 2024 parliamentary elections.

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Reforms Cannot Be Killed

Ebrahim Raisi won Iran’s thirteenth presidential election with 61.9 percent of the vote. This is a major victory for the hardliners, but contributing factors such as disarray among reformists need to be better contextualized. I also want to push back on the dominant doom and gloom narrative that is perpetuated in the Western media these days. The Guardian Council ensured Raisi's victory by disqualifying all major reformist and moderate candidates from the get-go, but reformists' agency cannot be discounted. Their disillusionment and lack of a cohesive approach further facilitated the hardliner's victory.

Reformists spent significant time and energy debating the participation issue in an election cycle that was already shortened due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Various consensus building attempts fell short until a few days before the vote, which left little time for mobilization. The increasing gap between the reformists and street-level politics played a major negative role as well. For the past five years, they gradually lost touch with the pressing needs of the middle and lower class Iranians. They backed Rouhani in 2013 and 2017, but they did not have any robust or cohesive response to his shortcomings. Their silence was especially noticeable on issues related to the economy and people's day-to-day livelihood, which significantly regressed after Trump's maximum pressure policy against Iran. The reformists also did not manage to rejuvenate their movement by nurturing a new generation of political leaders, which forced them to fall back on trite tactics and old faces, further disillusioning the voters.

There are other factors involved that will be analyzed for months to come. However, for now, there is a pervasive narrative of doom and gloom that's not situated within the historical realities of Iran. Raisi's victory is certainly a setback for moderate and reformist camps, but it's not predictive of some kind of a political doomsday in Iran. There needs to be a distinction made between the reformists as a political faction and the concept of reforms.

If history is any guide, so far, it's been impossible to kill bottom-up politics and reforms. That's not how state-society dynamics work! There is no permanent destruction of ideas or social forces. Iran is no exception and its history demonstrates it. The country has experienced a rich 100-year timeline of reforms that began with the 1906 Constitutional Revolution and have continued to the present day. This historical arc hasn't been a smooth curve. It's been a jagged line dotted with countless setbacks and state repression. The power and role of various political fronts have ebbed and flowed, but the ability of various bottom-up forces to retain pressure on them as well as the state has also been a permanent feature.

Today was a defeat for reformists, but the struggle is ongoing with many more battles ahead. It may seem impossible now, but Iran's civil society will find alternative ways to retain its pressure on various state bodies and political factions, demanding socipololitical and economic reforms. It seems the reformists have been abandoned by the voters at this moment in time, but this may be the exact wakeup-call needed to alter their approach. If not, the civil society can always find alternatives to communicate its demands and exert its power on the state.

Why Iran’s Parliament Matters

In my latest piece for LobeLog, I argue that despite what opponents of election participation in authoritarian systems believe, factional political shifts matter in Iran.

“Many opponents of voting in authoritarian systems are quick to dismiss such internal political shifts in Iran as inconsequential given the overall dogmatic nature of the regime. This election cycle was no exception. In the weeks leading up to election day, the proponents and opponents of election participation spilled much ink. Advocates of voting pointed to the importance of civic engagement for the future of reform in the country. Opponents questioned the parliament’s autonomy and criticized its influence. It is not that challenging to dismiss the parliament’s role by simply characterizing it as a tool used by the regime’s elites to preserve some semblance of democracy while they enforce their decrees. However, this view overlooks the position of the parliament as one of the only remaining public arenas for the exercise of factional politics in Iran—a necessary training ground if authentic political parties are to ever take root in the country.”

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Rouhani Ignores Domestic Political Reforms

My latest opinion piece for Al-Monitor discusses a series of domestic political and bureaucratic challenges faced by Rouhani’s administration. Iran’s domestic political system is not monolithic and cannot be painted with broad brushstrokes. A more nuanced view of the political intricacies of the country presents a more realistic picture of the issues that lie ahead.

By reaching a framework agreement with the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany (P5+1), President Hassan Rouhani’s administration has come closer to resolving Iran’s nuclear saga than any of his predecessors, regardless of the final outcome. However, the nuclear negotiations have caused another big part of Rouhani’s agenda to be neglected — a long list of domestic, social and political demands made by the Iranian people and the Reformist camp. To keep his critics at bay and his support base intact, Rouhani needs to shift his focus toward rebalancing the government. Given the intricate domestic political considerations and the country’s vast bureaucratic machinery, the task at hand is a challenging one.

Backed by different interests and ideologies, which result in varying domestic political calculations, each incoming faction adopts a domestic policy agenda best suited for its constituents. Such factors are often underweighted or absent in mainstream analyses of a president’s performance. The elected government needs to keep the domestic political factions and the constituents content to operate with relative ease. If an administration neglects this delicate balancing act, it is bound to face a tremendous amount of opposition from competing groups. Read more…

Iran's Second Generation Reformists Off to Shaky Start

My latest opinion piece for Al-Monitor discusses the formation of a new Reformist faction called Neda. The faction could be the much-needed impetus for the Reformists’ return to the political arena; however, ranking Reformists remain skeptical. By vowing to get closer to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the group could open some breathing room for Reformists, while at the same time disenfranchising the more radical elements of the Reformist camp.

The nascent group, which announced its decision to officially become a political faction by submitting a request to Iran’s Interior Ministry, consists of a 12-member founding board, under the leadership of Sadegh Kharazi, a seasoned diplomat and adviser to former Reformist President Mohammad Khatami. The majority of members belong to the youth wings of banned Reformist groups such as the Islamic Iran Participation Front, a political faction credited as the most dominant force within the 1997 Iranian Reform Movement, and the Organization of the Mujahedeen of the Islamic Revolution, a small, influential political faction. The prominent members of these groups were arrested and the factions were banned following the disputed 2009 presidential election.

There are many uncertainties surrounding the nature, ideology and ultimate objective of the new political faction. However, Kharazi has made it clear that one of their major objectives is to “play an effective role” in upcoming elections. Tired of the first generation of Reformists’ inaction following the 2009 presidential election, Neda has taken it upon itself to pave the way for the political participation of younger, second-generation Reformists. Read more…

Iran's Former Reformist President Cautiously Criticizes Rouhani

Iran’s former reformist president, Mohammad Khatami, delivered his annual Nowruz message via YouTube on Thursday, during which he cautiously criticized the achievements of President Rouhani’s administration thus far.

In his message Khatami highlights that the new government’s promises regarding political and social freedoms have not been fulfilled and that a large gap still exists between the ideals expected by voters and the delivered campaign promises by Iran’s moderate president, Hassan Rouhani.

The video appears to have been produced by the Baran Foundation, an NGO founded by Khatami after his presidential tenure (1997-2005) that mainly focuses on the promotion of social justice and the improvement of welfare programs.

The former president invited the Iranian citizens, especially the youth, to remain hopeful and continue to demand their rights, all while keeping their expectations realistic.

Khatami concluded his remarks with a poem from the beloved fourteenth century Persian poet, Hafez that seems to highlight his message of hope and perseverance.

The Persian text of the speech was published on Baran Foundation’s official website. The translation of the message is provided below.

In the name of God, the most compassionate, the most merciful.

In the name of God who is beautiful and likes beauty.
In the name of God, the most gracious, the most kind.
In the name of the God of spring, the God of human beings, the God of life.
The God who perfects his creation.
The God who wants humans to be alive, dynamic, and sophisticated.
The God who wants a beautiful life for all humans.

The past year, like many years before, consisted of a number of bitter and sweet events. Our nation has consistently tried to get past and tolerate hardships with grace, patience, and a sense for recognizing opportunities. In this manner, we have tried to improve our lives. This past year we witnessed an election that increased the hope in people; an election that should rightly be labeled as political heroism. The creation of a free and safe environment for all groups and factions was what the society expected and demanded. The [election] increased the hope of achieving such dreams. This amazing political achievement [2013 Presidential Election] could have become more glorious if the political environment would have opened up, if the environment of the country had transitioned from a security state to a political one, if political prisoners would have been freed, and if various restrictions and limitations on many individuals had lifted.

Unfortunately, however, such expectations did not come to fruition. Some attempts have been made, but they are not close to ideals. There is still hope for us to create an environment in which hearts are closer to each other. Such an environment would be beneficial for the people, the country, and the regime. It can increase passion and enthusiasm for the country’s development and cooperation in enhancing the state affairs.

We have many issues in many areas. Without a doubt, life is difficult for the majority of our people. Especially for the lower classes of our society, who are significant in numbers. Fortunately, in this regard, the plans and policies of the new administration are good. I hope that various departments and organizations support them. As witnessed, relative openings have been experienced in the foreign policy and economic arenas. However, these openings have to increase. While keeping in mind the national interests of the country, determined and solid steps forward should be taken. The beautiful side of Iran and the divine face of Islam should be demonstrated to the world. Commitment to ensuring the rights and welfare of a nation is a heavy responsibility for the administration and the regime. Of course, by keeping in mind the limitations and the available resources, [people] should keep their expectations at a realistic and logical level. However, we should never lose hope for the future.

Now, I would like to address the dear youth who are the country’s main asset. If there is freedom and prosperity, it is the youth who first experience it, and if there is restriction, unfortunately, it is also the youth who first experience it. But, the youth should never lose hope. They should continue to try. The regime should prepare the environment for the free, active, and enthusiastic presence of the youth in various sectors. All entrepreneurs, laborers, and all who are active should work together to advance the affairs of the country. The esteemed administration should prepare the background for the free presence of all factions, groups, organizations, and the private sector. The administration should utilize all internal and external talents in order to improve the situation. Fortunately, this intention exists and I hope to witness the realization of even bigger steps.

We have hope for the future. We are attached to this land and country. We count on our revolution. We want our regime to be prosperous and proud. In the foundation of this regime, we protect the honor, respect, and dignity of all humans. We hope to witness comprehensive reforms within the regime in the upcoming year–in order to strengthen the regime and to strengthen the foundations of national security and social prosperity. We also hope to witness the building of an environment that allows the use of internal and external recourses for improving the political, economical, and cultural situation of the country.

[…]

I wish for prosperity and happiness for all our dear people and for all who like Iran and Iranians. I hope to God, who has the power to change hearts, who controls the affairs, the God who creates days and nights, and the God who has the power to change all conditions and situations, to change our condition for the better. I hope it happens in a way that we are all happy with our daily lives. I hope that the people and the government step side by side towards a better future.

[Hafez – Ghazal #164]

Morning breeze, its fragrance will exhale
The old world will once again youthfully sail.
Tulip will bring a red cup to the meadows
Narcissus’ eyes from poppy will grow pale.
When would nightingale put up with such abuse
Leave not joy of the now till the morrow
Who can vouch that the morrow, the now shall trail?
Hold dear all the flowers and commune
Came to be and will whither with a breeze or a gale.
This feast is for friends, O minstrel, play and sing
Sing again, it came thus and went thus, to what avail?
Hafez, for your sake, entered this tale
Walk with him, say farewell, he’ll tear the veil